Liquidation Stress Test · modeled scenario

Liquidation Stress Test

API ▸ How to call this

Apply a hypothetical price move to a modeled liquidation map built from recent derivatives snapshots and tracked Hyperliquid positions. The result is an estimate of notional that could be at risk under the scenario—not a list of accounts known to liquidate.

Estimated
0.0%
−30% (crash → longs liq)0%+30% (squeeze → shorts liq)
Target price
from
Modeled at-risk notional
crossed at this move
Scenario severity
of visible OI
Whale positions used
reported entry/leverage + model factor
Nearest wall
to current price

Estimated liquidation clusters by price level

Estimated — not realized

Green bars = long liquidations (triggered by a price drop). Orange bars = short liquidations (triggered by a squeeze). The dashed marker is your target price. Bars are estimated from current open interest, real whale positions, and leverage assumptions — not a settled outcome.

Triggered by exchange

Move the slider to project a cascade.

Realized-liquidation context

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How the model works (read this)

The reference price is the mean of the latest usable exchange prices. For each tracked Hyperliquid position, the model combines its reported entry and leverage with a 0.9 initial-margin-loss factor to estimate a liquidation level. This is not the venue's account-specific liquidation price: maintenance tiers, cross margin, collateral changes, and account equity are not available.

For the rest of visible open interest, the model splits exchange OI using the stored long/short ratios, infers an average leverage from funding magnitude, and distributes that OI across five leverage bands from 0.5× to 1.5× the inferred average. A down scenario crosses modeled long-liquidation levels; an up scenario crosses modeled short-liquidation levels.

Scenario severity is crossed modeled notional divided by visible OI: Low <12%, Moderate 12–33%, High 33–66%, Extreme ≥66%. It is a scenario-size label, not a probability forecast.

Hyperliquid whale positions are also part of Hyperliquid aggregate open interest. Because the two model components are merged without account-level de-duplication, their notional can overlap. Read the total as a stress indicator, not an additive estimate of settled liquidation volume.

Data, freshness & how to read

The endpoint uses the latest derivatives and whale-position snapshots that are no more than 2 hours old and is cached for up to 2 minutes. Exchange coverage depends on which fresh rows are available. Realized-liquidation figures come from the separate persisted Binance, Bybit, and Hyperliquid stream and are shown only as recent context.

  • The bars show all modeled clusters; the KPI counts only clusters crossed by the selected target price.
  • “Nearest wall” is the closest modeled cluster, not support or resistance.
  • A 0% move should produce zero triggered notional.
  • Realized context does not validate the modeled scenario.